NYSE: MGY · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) at $26.15 a share. The stock last closed at $24.07, which puts the model's fair value 8.6% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 3 Oct 2026
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation is an energy company engaged in the full lifecycle of hydrocarbon resource management: acquisition, development, exploration, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids within the United States.
On 3 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $26.15 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 26 Sep 2026 gave $26.20, a move of -0.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $21.82 to $31.70, built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade is High.
The business has an overall quality score of 86 out of 100 against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 100, with ROIC at 20.2% against a peer median of 9.1%. The model compares it with Murphy Oil Corporation, Matador Resources Company, California Resources Corp, Crescent Energy Company, Chord Energy Corporation, and SM Energy Company. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 3 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MGY?
The calibrated range for MGY over 63 trading days is $21.82 to $31.70. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $21.08 to $32.02. In 62% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MGY score on business quality?
Magnolia Oil & Gas's overall quality score is 86 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 20.2%ROIC | 9.1% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 87 | 1.23xFCF / net income | 0.84x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 71 | -0.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 18.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 55 | 3.6%Net buybacks / market value | 1.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 100 | 0.10xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.25x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 91 | 2.4 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 5.9 pts |
How does MGY compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Magnolia Oil & Gas in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation | $37.66 | $36.92 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | $53.50 | $74.39 | +39.0% | Undervalued |
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $31.50 | $33.80 | +7.3% | Low evidence grade |
| CRC California Resources Corp | $52.43 | $50.21 | -4.2% | Fairly valued |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | $13.39 | $14.46 | +8.0% | Fairly valued |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corporation | $137.01 | $187.34 | +36.7% | Undervalued |
| SM SM Energy Company | $35.24 | $31.80 | -9.8% | Fairly valued |
| CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | $12.78 | $8.90 | -30.4% | Low evidence grade |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does MGY report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Magnolia Oil & Gas's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How MGY moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 2.7%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | +0.7% |
| 6 May 2026 | -8.8% |
| 5 Feb 2026 | +2.3% |
| 29 Oct 2025 | -1.5% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -3.2% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | +8.9% |
| 18 Feb 2025 | +3.1% |
| 30 Oct 2024 | -0.1% |
Magnolia Oil & Gas at a glance
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation is an energy company engaged in the full lifecycle of hydrocarbon resource management: acquisition, development, exploration, and production of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids (NGLs) within the United States.
- Market value
- $5.7B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.4B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +46.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 9
- Beta to the US market
- -0.20
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Magnolia Oil & Gas on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 26 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MGY was $26.20. As of 3 Oct 2026 it is $26.15, a change of -0.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Magnolia Oil & Gas's valuation
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MGY reads as Fairly valued as of 3 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $26.15 a share against a last close of $24.07, a gap of +8.6%.
What is MGY's fair value?
$26.15 a share as of 3 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $21.08 to $32.02.
What price range does the model give MGY?
$21.82 to $31.70 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,809 past valuations, refreshed 3 Oct 2026.
When does Magnolia Oil & Gas report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MGY moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 2.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was +8.9% around the report of 30 Apr 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MGY is high. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.