NYSE: MUR · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Murphy Oil (MUR) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Murphy Oil (MUR) at $37.11 a share. The stock last closed at $37.66, which puts the model's fair value 1.5% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Murphy Oil Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Murphy Oil Corporation functions as a company primarily focused on discovering and extracting crude oil and natural gas.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $37.11 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $37.55, and the fair value moved -1.2%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $31.13 to $45.25, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium.
The business scores 47 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. The model compares it with Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY), California Resources Corp (CRC), Crescent Energy Company (CRGY), Matador Resources Company (MTDR), Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD), and SM Energy Company (SM). Around the last 8 earnings reports, the stock moved a median of 6.3%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MUR?
The calibrated range for MUR over 63 trading days is $31.13 to $45.25. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $25.86 to $51.71. In 52% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MUR score on business quality?
Murphy Oil's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 25 | 5.1%ROIC | 9.0% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 75 | 1.12xFCF / net income | 0.48x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 42 | -10.9%Revenue growth, trailing | 11.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 29 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 1.3% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -0.06xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.12x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 58 | 5.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 6.8 pts |
How does MUR compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Murphy Oil in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $31.50 | $34.60 | +9.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | $24.07 | $26.20 | +8.8% | Fairly valued |
| CRC California Resources Corp | $52.43 | $50.02 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | $13.39 | $14.07 | +5.1% | Fairly valued |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | $53.50 | $73.80 | +37.9% | Undervalued |
| CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | $12.78 | $8.46 | -33.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corporation | $137.01 | $191.26 | +39.6% | Undervalued |
| SM SM Energy Company | $35.24 | $30.66 | -13.0% | Fairly valued |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does MUR report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Murphy Oil's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 14.2% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 48 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction.
How MUR moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -13.9% |
| 6 May 2026 | -8.2% |
| 28 Jan 2026 | -2.3% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +4.4% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -4.2% |
| 7 May 2025 | +8.1% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | -8.7% |
| 7 Nov 2024 | +2.3% |
Murphy Oil at a glance
Murphy Oil Corporation, along with its affiliated entities, functions as a company primarily focused on discovering and extracting crude oil and natural gas.
- Market value
- $5.2B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.1B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +18.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 8
- Beta to the US market
- -0.27
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Murphy Oil on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MUR was $37.55. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $37.11, a change of -1.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Murphy Oil's valuation
Is Murphy Oil stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MUR reads as Fairly valued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $37.11 a share against a last close of $37.66, a gap of -1.5%.
What is MUR's fair value?
$37.11 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $25.86 to $51.71.
What price range does the model give MUR?
$31.13 to $45.25 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Murphy Oil report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MUR moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -13.9% around the report of 5 Aug 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MUR is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.