NYSE: TALO · Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Talos Energy (TALO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Talos Energy (TALO) at $24.70 a share. The stock last closed at $16.78, which puts the model's fair value 47.2% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Undervalued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Talos Energy Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Talos Energy Inc. is an autonomous entity that finds and extracts hydrocarbon resources. The company targets oil and natural gas fields in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Mexico's offshore territories.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $24.70 a share on 26 Sep 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $25.46, so the fair value moved -3.0%. The model's calibrated range over 63 trading days is $20.72 to $30.12, built from the fair value because there is no live options data for the stock. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade for this valuation is Medium.
The company's overall quality score is 47 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Crescent Energy Company, California Resources Corp, Murphy Oil Corporation, Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation, and Matador Resources Company. Moves around the last 8 earnings reports show a median size of 5.4%, ignoring direction, with examples like -4.6% on 4 Aug 2026 and +16.3% on 5 May 2025.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give TALO?
The calibrated range for TALO over 63 trading days is $20.72 to $30.12. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 29% of the time over 63 trading days, and 71% ended below it; the typical move was +5.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $17.52 to $33.98. In 84% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does TALO score on business quality?
Talos Energy's overall quality score is 47 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 0 | 1.9%ROIC | 8.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 83 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 62 | -9.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 10.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 67 | 3.7%Net buybacks / market value | 0.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 51 | 1.01xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.21x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 67 | 10.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 12.2 pts |
How does TALO compare with similar companies?
The companies in oil & gas exploration & production closest to Talos Energy in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOG Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. | $23.83 | $34.53 | +44.9% | Low evidence grade |
| CRK Comstock Resources, Inc. | $12.78 | $8.46 | -33.8% | Low evidence grade |
| CRGY Crescent Energy Company | $13.39 | $14.07 | +5.1% | Fairly valued |
| CRC California Resources Corp | $52.43 | $50.02 | -4.6% | Fairly valued |
| CNX CNX Resources Corporation | $31.50 | $34.60 | +9.8% | Low evidence grade |
| MUR Murphy Oil Corporation | $37.66 | $37.11 | -1.5% | Fairly valued |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | $24.07 | $26.20 | +8.8% | Fairly valued |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | $53.50 | $73.80 | +37.9% | Undervalued |
All oil & gas exploration & production stocks ranked by gap to fair value
When does TALO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Talos Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How TALO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 4 Aug 2026 | -4.6% |
| 5 May 2026 | -7.1% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | -13.8% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +2.3% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -1.0% |
| 5 May 2025 | +16.3% |
| 26 Feb 2025 | +6.2% |
| 11 Nov 2024 | +1.2% |
Talos Energy at a glance
Talos Energy Inc. functions as an autonomous entity engaged in the discovery and extraction of hydrocarbon resources. The company primarily targets oil and natural gas fields situated in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and within Mexico's offshore territories.
- Market value
- $2.7B
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.2B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +25.2%
- Analysts with estimates
- 3
- Beta to the US market
- -0.31
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Talos Energy on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for TALO was $25.46. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $24.70, a change of -3.0%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Talos Energy's valuation
Is Talos Energy stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, TALO reads as Undervalued as of 26 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $24.70 a share against a last close of $16.78, a gap of +47.2%.
What is TALO's fair value?
$24.70 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $17.52 to $33.98.
What price range does the model give TALO?
$20.72 to $30.12 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Talos Energy report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TALO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +16.3% around the report of 5 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TALO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.