NYSE: F · Auto Manufacturers
Ford Motor (F) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Ford Motor (F) at $12.75 a share. The stock last closed at $12.10, which puts the model's fair value 5.4% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Ford Motor Company.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Ford Motor Company is a global automotive giant, engaged in the design, production, and servicing of a broad spectrum of vehicles.
On 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model found a fair value of $12.75 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -2.8% since the previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, which gave $13.12. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $10.90 to $14.52, built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, calibrated weekly against realised prices (3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, and the model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The model compares Ford Motor Company with Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG), NIKE, Inc. (NKE), eBay Inc. (EBAY), Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG), D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI), and also with General Motors Company (GM), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL), which have no verdict on this date. The stock's moves around the last 8 earnings reports were: 28 Jul 2026 +4.1%, 29 Apr 2026 -2.6%, 10 Feb 2026 +1.9%, 23 Oct 2025 +11.3%, 30 Jul 2025 -0.1%, 5 May 2025 +1.6%, 5 Feb 2025 -8.9%, and 28 Oct 2024 -6.0%. The median size of these moves, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give F?
The calibrated range for F over 63 trading days is $10.90 to $14.52. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that F's own options imply (40% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $2.40 to $24.72. In 50% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does F compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto manufacturers closest to Ford Motor in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM General Motors Company | $78.27 | $86.33 | +10.3% | Low evidence grade |
| HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc. | $24.55 | $24.29 | -1.1% | Fairly valued |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $370.59 | $325.43 | -12.2% | Data under review |
| NKE NIKE, Inc. | $33.87 | $29.09 | -14.1% | Fairly valued |
| EBAY eBay Inc. | $106.40 | $116.78 | +9.8% | Fairly valued |
| CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. | $32.36 | $31.03 | -4.1% | Fairly valued |
| DHI D.R. Horton, Inc. | $135.00 | $144.66 | +7.2% | Fairly valued |
| RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. | $277.74 | $258.69 | -6.9% | Low evidence grade |
When does F report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Ford Motor's next earnings report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 6.3% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 20 days out, a window that includes the report. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. F's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 11.7% over one month.
How F moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2026 | +4.1% |
| 29 Apr 2026 | -2.6% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | +1.9% |
| 23 Oct 2025 | +11.3% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | -0.1% |
| 5 May 2025 | +1.6% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -8.9% |
| 28 Oct 2024 | -6.0% |
Ford Motor at a glance
Ford Motor Company is a global automotive giant, engaged in the design, production, and servicing of a broad spectrum of vehicles.
- Market value
- $50.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $189.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -0.6%
- Analysts with estimates
- 11
- Beta to the US market
- 1.08
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Ford Motor on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the revenue analysts expect next year (forward EV/Sales), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for F was $13.12. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $12.75, a change of -2.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Ford Motor's valuation
Is Ford Motor stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts F's fair value at $12.75 a share against a last close of $12.10, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is F's fair value?
$12.75 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $2.40 to $24.72.
What price range does the model give F?
$10.90 to $14.52 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Ford Motor report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 22 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has F moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was +11.3% around the report of 23 Oct 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for F is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.