NASDAQ: TSLA ยท Auto Manufacturers
Tesla (TSLA) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Tesla (TSLA) at $349.39 a share. The stock last closed at $398.50, which puts the model's fair value 12.3% below the price. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
- The stock trades on multiples far outside what a peer comparison can handle, so the fair value is a rough guide only.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. Tesla, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $325.28 to $349.39 (+7.4%). The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $398.50 is 12.3% above it. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What's nextNext report on 27 Jan 2027. Options prices imply a move of about 12% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give TSLA?
The calibrated range for TSLA over 63 trading days is $350.85 to $465.99. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that TSLA's own options imply (43% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $258.07 to $466.63. In 34% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
The Global Pulse
Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does TSLA report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Tesla's next earnings report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 4 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 5.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 8 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. TSLA's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 12.4% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across TSLA's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in TSLA
How does TSLA score on business quality?
Tesla's overall quality score is 51 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 15 | 3.0%ROIC | |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 87 | 1.03xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 46 | -2.9%Revenue growth, trailing | |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 42 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 85 | -0.12xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 73 | 2.0 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y |
How does TSLA compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto manufacturers closest to Tesla in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GM General Motors Company | $88.34 | $90.16 | +2.1% | Low evidence grade |
| F Ford Motor Company | $12.31 | $12.36 | +0.4% | Low evidence grade |
| HOG Harley-Davidson, Inc. | $33.32 | $30.45 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. | $250.69 | $225.58 | -10.0% | Fairly valued |
| HD The Home Depot, Inc. | $333.66 | $304.60 | -8.7% | Fairly valued |
| MCD McDonald's Corporation | $263.04 | $257.72 | -2.0% | Fairly valued |
| TJX The TJX Companies, Inc. | $137.63 | $138.13 | +0.4% | Fairly valued |
| SBUX Starbucks Corporation | $104.77 | $95.69 | -8.7% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for TSLA, the peer-implied price, is $5.75 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Tesla at a glance
Tesla, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of electric vehicles, alongside comprehensive energy generation and storage solutions.
- Market value
- $1.58T
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $119.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +13.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 24
- Beta to the US market
- 2.26
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Tesla on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for TSLA was $325.28. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $349.39, a change of +7.4%. The multiple the model anchors on moved, lifting the fair value: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Tesla's valuation
Is Tesla stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts TSLA's fair value at $349.39 a share against a last close of $398.50, as of 31 Oct 2026. The inputs behind this valuation are under review, so no verdict is shown.
What is TSLA's fair value?
$349.39 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $258.07 to $466.63.
What price range does the model give TSLA?
$350.85 to $465.99 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does Tesla report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 27 Jan 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has TSLA moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -15.6% around the report of 22 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for TSLA is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.