NYSE: HOG ยท Auto Manufacturers
Harley-Davidson (HOG) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 19 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Harley-Davidson (HOG) at $24.72 a share. The stock last closed at $26.03, which puts the model's fair value 5.0% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 22 Sep 2026. Harley-Davidson, Inc.
What price range does the model give HOG?
The calibrated range for HOG over 63 trading days is $13.76 to $86.71. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that HOG's own options imply (261% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $17.08 to $34.58. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does HOG score on business quality?
Harley-Davidson's overall quality score is 32 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 23 | 4.0%ROIC | 9.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 18 | -0.66xFCF / net income | 1.38x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 13 | -13.8%Revenue growth, trailing | -1.1% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 79 | 13.2%Net buybacks / market value | 4.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 65 | 1.18xNet debt / EBITDA | 0.70x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 50 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.4 pts |
How does HOG compare with similar companies?
The companies in auto manufacturers closest to Harley-Davidson in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F Ford Motor Company | $13.10 | $13.12 | +0.2% | Low model confidence |
| GM General Motors Company | $83.45 | $86.90 | +4.1% | Low model confidence |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $378.90 | $331.36 | -12.5% | Data under review |
| GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | $9.57 | $11.83 | +23.6% | Low model confidence |
| WING Wingstop Inc. | $102.38 | $107.45 | +5.0% | Low model confidence |
| GRBK Green Brick Partners, Inc. | $68.80 | $68.37 | -0.6% | Fairly valued |
| KBH KB Home | $48.59 | $44.40 | -8.6% | Fairly valued |
| AAP Advance Auto Parts, Inc. | $42.66 | $41.42 | -2.9% | Low model confidence |
When does HOG report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Harley-Davidson's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 22 Sep 2026 imply a move of about 54.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 9 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. HOG's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 75.4% over one month.
How HOG moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 4.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 23 Jul 2026 | -7.8% |
| 5 May 2026 | +2.7% |
| 10 Feb 2026 | +2.2% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | -6.2% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +6.0% |
| 1 May 2025 | -1.3% |
| 5 Feb 2025 | -0.4% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -6.7% |
Harley-Davidson at a glance
Harley-Davidson, Inc., publicly traded under the symbol HOG, is fundamentally a manufacturer and seller of motorcycles. The company's operations are divided into two primary divisions: Motorcycle Products and Related Offerings, and Financial Services.
- Market value
- $2.7B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto Manufacturers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $4.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -13.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 12
- Beta to the US market
- 0.71
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Harley-Davidson on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 12 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for HOG was $26.53. As of 19 Sep 2026 it is $24.72, a change of -6.8%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Harley-Davidson's valuation
Is Harley-Davidson stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, HOG reads as Fairly valued as of 19 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $24.72 a share against a last close of $26.03, a gap of -5.0%.
What is HOG's fair value?
$24.72 a share as of 19 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $17.08 to $34.58.
What price range does the model give HOG?
$13.76 to $86.71 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 2,982 past valuations, refreshed 19 Sep 2026.
When does Harley-Davidson report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has HOG moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 4.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -7.8% around the report of 23 Jul 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
Model confidence for HOG is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.