NYSE: FUN · Leisure
Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) at $8.84 a share. The stock last closed at $11.60, which puts the model's fair value 23.8% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Six Flags Entertainment Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation stands as a prominent operator of amusement and resort properties situated across North America.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $8.84 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $8.70, a move of +1.6%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $7.42 to $10.78, built from the fair value, and held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The business scores 50 out of 100 on overall quality against comparable companies. Its profitability score is 43, with ROIC 5.7% against a peer median of 7.8%. The model compares it with OneSpaWorld Holdings Ltd (OSW), YETI Holdings, Inc. (YETI), Mattel, Inc. (MAT), and Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF). The stock has moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size, ignoring direction, of 11.4%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give FUN?
The calibrated range for FUN over 63 trading days is $7.42 to $10.78. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is above this range. For names with fair value 15%+ below price, the calibrated range has held the price 40% of the time over 63 trading days, and 58% ended above it; the typical move was −0.1%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.00 to $27.47. In 43% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does FUN score on business quality?
Six Flags Entertainment's overall quality score is 50 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 43 | 5.7%ROIC | 7.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 38 | 14.4%Revenue growth, trailing | -3.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 14 | 0.0%Net buybacks / market value | 0.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 70 | -5.56xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.99x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 14 | 19.6 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 4.3 pts |
How does FUN compare with similar companies?
The companies in leisure closest to Six Flags Entertainment in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OSW OneSpaWorld Holdings Ltd | $23.62 | $22.17 | -6.1% | Fairly valued |
| YETI YETI Holdings, Inc. | $40.87 | $43.78 | +7.1% | Fairly valued |
| PLNT Planet Fitness, Inc. | $42.41 | $46.49 | +9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| MAT Mattel, Inc. | $15.27 | $14.13 | -7.5% | Fairly valued |
| GOLF Acushnet Holdings Corp. | $83.65 | $69.54 | -16.9% | Overvalued |
| LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. | $40.99 | $36.51 | -10.9% | Low evidence grade |
| HAS Hasbro, Inc. | $89.54 | $85.10 | -5.0% | Low evidence grade |
When does FUN report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Six Flags Entertainment's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How FUN moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 11.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | -12.7% |
| 7 May 2026 | +11.8% |
| 19 Feb 2026 | +12.5% |
| 7 Nov 2025 | -11.1% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -18.0% |
| 8 May 2025 | -9.6% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -4.4% |
| 6 Nov 2024 | +7.1% |
Six Flags Entertainment at a glance
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation stands as a prominent operator of amusement and resort properties situated across North America.
- Market value
- $1.3B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Leisure
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.0B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -6.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 5
- Beta to the US market
- 1.41
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Six Flags Entertainment on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for FUN was $8.70. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $8.84, a change of +1.6%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Six Flags Entertainment's valuation
Is Six Flags Entertainment stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts FUN's fair value at $8.84 a share against a last close of $11.60, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is FUN's fair value?
$8.84 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.00 to $27.47.
What price range does the model give FUN?
$7.42 to $10.78 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Six Flags Entertainment report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has FUN moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 11.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was -18.0% around the report of 6 Aug 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for FUN is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.