NYSE: LTH · Leisure
Life Time Group (LTH) fair value and price range
As of 26 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Life Time Group (LTH) at $36.51 a share. The stock last closed at $40.99, which puts the model's fair value 10.9% below the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 26 Sep 2026
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH) delivers health, fitness, and well-being experiences to its individual clientele throughout the United States and Canada.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $36.51 a share on 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. This fair value moved -2.2% from the previous run on 19 Sep 2026, which was $37.32. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $30.63 to $44.52, built from the fair value, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low.
The overall quality score is 34 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares it with Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF), Mattel, Inc. (MAT), YETI Holdings, Inc. (YETI), and OneSpaWorld Holdings Ltd (OSW). Moves around the last 8 earnings reports had a median size, ignoring direction, of 6.2%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 26 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give LTH?
The calibrated range for LTH over 63 trading days is $30.63 to $44.52. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $18.96 to $61.38. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does LTH score on business quality?
Life Time Group's overall quality score is 34 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 19 | 5.5%ROIC | 10.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 35 | -0.36xFCF / net income | 1.40x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 79 | 14.3%Revenue growth, trailing | 6.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 15 | 0.8%Net buybacks / market value | 4.9% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 44 | 4.33xNet debt / EBITDA | 3.32x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 15.1 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does LTH compare with similar companies?
The companies in leisure closest to Life Time Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HAS Hasbro, Inc. | $89.54 | $85.10 | -5.0% | Low evidence grade |
| GOLF Acushnet Holdings Corp. | $83.65 | $69.54 | -16.9% | Overvalued |
| MAT Mattel, Inc. | $15.27 | $14.13 | -7.5% | Fairly valued |
| PLNT Planet Fitness, Inc. | $42.41 | $46.49 | +9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| YETI YETI Holdings, Inc. | $40.87 | $43.78 | +7.1% | Fairly valued |
| OSW OneSpaWorld Holdings Ltd | $23.62 | $22.17 | -6.1% | Fairly valued |
| FUN Six Flags Entertainment Corporation | $11.60 | $8.84 | -23.8% | Low evidence grade |
When does LTH report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Life Time Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How LTH moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.2%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -1.3% |
| 5 May 2026 | +27.8% |
| 24 Feb 2026 | -6.8% |
| 4 Nov 2025 | +2.1% |
| 5 Aug 2025 | -5.6% |
| 8 May 2025 | -7.7% |
| 27 Feb 2025 | -3.6% |
| 24 Oct 2024 | -7.1% |
Life Time Group at a glance
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH) delivers extensive health, fitness, and well-being experiences to its individual clientele throughout the United States and Canada.
- Market value
- $8.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Leisure
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $3.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +12.5%
- Analysts with estimates
- 6
- Beta to the US market
- 0.63
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Life Time Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for LTH was $37.32. As of 26 Sep 2026 it is $36.51, a change of -2.2%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Life Time Group's valuation
Is Life Time Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts LTH's fair value at $36.51 a share against a last close of $40.99, as of 26 Sep 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is LTH's fair value?
$36.51 a share as of 26 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $18.96 to $61.38.
What price range does the model give LTH?
$30.63 to $44.52 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Life Time Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has LTH moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.2%, ignoring direction. The largest was +27.8% around the report of 5 May 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for LTH is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.