NASDAQ: MAT · Leisure
Mattel (MAT) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values Mattel (MAT) at $16.78 a share. The stock last closed at $14.97, which puts the model's fair value 12.1% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. Mattel, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $17.19 to $16.78 (-2.4%). The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $14.97 is 12.1% below it: Fairly valued, on a medium evidence grade.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 22% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MAT?
The calibrated range for MAT over 63 trading days is $11.97 to $19.71. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MAT's own options imply (75% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $11.09 to $23.79. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
Mattel, Inc. is a worldwide children's entertainment corporation. It designs and produces a diverse range of toys and consumer goods.
Faircurve's model gives a fair value of $16.78 a share on 31 Oct 2026. This is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $17.19, so the fair value moved -2.4%. In the model's words, "The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $12.82 to $18.99. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The evidence grade is Medium. The grade looks at input completeness, the number and agreement of comparable companies, and the spread of outcomes. It does not say whether the fair value is right.
Mattel's overall quality score is 73 out of 100, measured against comparable companies. Stability scores 95, with five-year EBITDA margin downside volatility of 1.2 pts against a peer median of 3.4 pts. Capital discipline scores 87, with net buybacks at 4.7% of market value against a peer median of 0.8%. The balance sheet scores 43, with net debt to EBITDA at 2.74x against a peer median of 5.10x. The model compares Mattel with Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF), YETI Holdings, Inc. (YETI) and Hasbro, Inc. (HAS).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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When does MAT report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 21.5% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 14 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MAT's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 21.8% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MAT's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 3.1%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MAT
How does MAT score on business quality?
Mattel's overall quality score is 73 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 79 | 9.5%ROIC | -0.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 85 | 1.47xFCF / net income | |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 48 | -0.6%Revenue growth, trailing | -5.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 87 | 4.7%Net buybacks / market value | 0.8% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 43 | 2.74xNet debt / EBITDA | 5.10x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 95 | 1.2 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 3.4 pts |
How does MAT compare with similar companies?
The companies in leisure closest to Mattel in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PLNT Planet Fitness, Inc. | $60.07 | $56.63 | -5.7% | Low evidence grade |
| GOLF Acushnet Holdings Corp. | $83.62 | $72.72 | -13.0% | Fairly valued |
| YETI YETI Holdings, Inc. | $46.95 | $45.28 | -3.6% | Fairly valued |
| OSW OneSpaWorld Holdings Ltd | $30.72 | $28.76 | -6.4% | Low evidence grade |
| LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. | $47.75 | $42.95 | -10.1% | Low evidence grade |
| HAS Hasbro, Inc. | $119.54 | $108.94 | -8.9% | Fairly valued |
| FUN Six Flags Entertainment Corporation | $9.24 | $7.55 | -18.3% | Low evidence grade |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MAT, the peer-implied price, is $24.41 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
Mattel at a glance
Mattel, Inc. functions as a worldwide children's entertainment corporation, primarily engaged in the design and production of a diverse range of toys and consumer goods.
- Market value
- $4.4B
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Leisure
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $5.9B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +6.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- 0.44
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
At the close of 5 Nov 2026, 56.1% of the 1,065 graded US stocks the model covers traded below the model's fair value. MAT was among them.
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Mattel on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MAT was $17.19. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $16.78, a change of -2.4%. The stock's own trading multiple fell with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Mattel's valuation
Is Mattel stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MAT reads as Fairly valued as of 31 Oct 2026. The model's fair value is $16.78 a share against a last close of $14.97, a gap of +12.1%.
What is MAT's fair value?
$16.78 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $11.09 to $23.79.
What price range does the model give MAT?
$11.97 to $19.71 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has MAT moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 3.1%, ignoring direction. The largest was -26.6% around the report of 10 Feb 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MAT is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MAT
The model holds no idea open on MAT today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MAT with their outcomes. A free account is enough.