NYSE: MO · Tobacco
Altria Group (MO) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 28 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Altria Group (MO) at $75.65 a share. The stock last closed at $67.35, which puts the model's fair value 12.3% above the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Altria Group, Inc.
Faircurve Insights · 28 Sep 2026
Altria Group, Inc. operates across the United States through its subsidiaries. It is a prominent manufacturer and marketer of both combustible and oral tobacco items.
Faircurve's model found a fair value of $75.65 a share on 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 19 Sep 2026, gave $76.30, and the fair value moved -0.9%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days was $63.28 to $75.11, and ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model's evidence grade was Medium.
The model scored the company's overall quality at 62 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Altria Group, Inc. with Philip Morris International Inc., Universal Corporation, Monster Beverage Corporation, Mondelez International, Inc., PepsiCo, Inc., Target Corporation, Colgate-Palmolive Company, and Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC. The stock's median move around its last 8 earnings reports, ignoring direction, was 5.5%.
Written from the figures on this page for the 28 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give MO?
The calibrated range for MO over 63 trading days is $63.28 to $75.11. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MO's own options imply (24% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $48.23 to $112.37. In 57% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does MO score on business quality?
Altria Group's overall quality score is 62 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 100 | 48.0%ROIC | 21.8% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 66 | 1.04xFCF / net income | 1.13x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 27 | -1.5%Revenue growth, trailing | 3.6% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 71 | 0.8%Net buybacks / market value | 1.4% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 60 | 1.89xNet debt / EBITDA | 2.59x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 4 | 12.3 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 2.4 pts |
How does MO compare with similar companies?
The companies in tobacco closest to Altria Group in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PM Philip Morris International Inc. | $187.46 | $190.22 | +1.5% | Fairly valued |
| UVV Universal Corporation | $42.20 | $41.10 | -2.6% | Fairly valued |
| MNST Monster Beverage Corporation | $42.94 | $40.99 | -4.5% | Fairly valued |
| MDLZ Mondelez International, Inc. | $58.19 | $49.89 | -14.3% | Fairly valued |
| PEP PepsiCo, Inc. | $125.89 | $157.62 | +25.2% | Undervalued |
| TGT Target Corporation | $156.00 | $179.73 | +15.2% | Undervalued |
| CL Colgate-Palmolive Company | $84.26 | $89.97 | +6.8% | Fairly valued |
| CCEP Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC | $101.06 | $90.19 | -10.8% | Fairly valued |
When does MO report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Altria Group's next earnings report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
Options prices on 2 Oct 2026 imply a move of about 3.1% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 13 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MO's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 7.0% over one month.
How MO moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 5.5%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2026 | -8.8% |
| 30 Apr 2026 | +9.3% |
| 29 Jan 2026 | -1.8% |
| 30 Oct 2025 | -9.0% |
| 30 Jul 2025 | +4.3% |
| 29 Apr 2025 | +1.6% |
| 30 Jan 2025 | -0.8% |
| 31 Oct 2024 | +6.7% |
Altria Group at a glance
Operating across the United States through its subsidiaries, Altria Group, Inc. is a prominent manufacturer and marketer of both combustible and oral tobacco items.
- Market value
- $114.9B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Tobacco
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $20.7B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +2.1%
- Analysts with estimates
- 7
- Beta to the US market
- -0.57
- First valued by Faircurve
- 1 May 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Altria Group on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for MO was $76.30. As of 28 Sep 2026 it is $75.65, a change of -0.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Altria Group's valuation
Is Altria Group stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, MO reads as Fairly valued as of 28 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $75.65 a share against a last close of $67.35, a gap of +12.3%.
What is MO's fair value?
$75.65 a share as of 28 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $48.23 to $112.37.
What price range does the model give MO?
$63.28 to $75.11 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 3,330 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Altria Group report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 29 Oct 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has MO moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 5.5%, ignoring direction. The largest was +9.3% around the report of 30 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MO is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.