NYSE: UVV · Tobacco
Universal (UVV) fair value: undervalued or overvalued?
As of 27 Sep 2026, Faircurve's model values Universal (UVV) at $41.10 a share. The stock last closed at $42.20, which puts the model's fair value 2.6% below the price. On the model's bands that reads as Fairly valued.
Revalued . Price is the close of 2 Oct 2026. Universal Corporation.
Faircurve Insights · 27 Sep 2026
Universal Corporation is a global agricultural enterprise specializing in the processing and supply of leaf tobacco and a diverse range of plant-based ingredients.
Faircurve's model on 27 Sep 2026 found a fair value of $41.10 a share, which is the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run on 19 Sep 2026 gave $42.40, a move of -3.1%. The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $34.48 to $50.11, built from the fair value. This range held the price 60% of the time at this horizon, with 4,327 past valuations refreshed on 26 Sep 2026. The evidence grade is Medium.
The overall quality score is 45 out of 100 against comparable companies. The model compares Universal Corporation with Altria Group, Inc., Philip Morris International Inc., Flowers Foods, Inc., Edgewell Personal Care Company, The Simply Good Foods Company, and John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. The stock moved around its last 8 earnings reports, with a median size of 6.4%, ignoring direction.
Written from the figures on this page for the 27 Sep 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
What price range does the model give UVV?
The calibrated range for UVV over 63 trading days is $34.48 to $50.11. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $25.34 to $60.17. In 47% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
How does UVV score on business quality?
Universal's overall quality score is 45 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 12 | 4.7%ROIC | 5.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | 8.60xFCF / net income | 0.61x |
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analyst estimate revisions. | 22 | -0.8%Revenue growth, trailing | 1.5% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 70 | 0.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.0% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 6 | 5.32xNet debt / EBITDA | 1.60x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 98 | 0.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.7 pts |
How does UVV compare with similar companies?
The companies in tobacco closest to Universal in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MO Altria Group, Inc. | $67.35 | $75.65 | +12.3% | Fairly valued |
| PM Philip Morris International Inc. | $187.46 | $190.22 | +1.5% | Fairly valued |
| GO Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. | $11.62 | $9.92 | -14.6% | Low evidence grade |
| FLO Flowers Foods, Inc. | $5.57 | $5.75 | +3.2% | Fairly valued |
| BRBR BellRing Brands, Inc. | $7.43 | $8.62 | +16.0% | Low evidence grade |
| EPC Edgewell Personal Care Company | $26.97 | $24.48 | -9.2% | Fairly valued |
| SMPL The Simply Good Foods Company | $9.83 | $11.54 | +17.4% | Undervalued |
| JBSS John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. | $68.52 | $71.76 | +4.7% | Fairly valued |
When does UVV report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Universal's next earnings report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How UVV moved around its last 8 earnings reports
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across these 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.4%.
| Report date | Two session move |
|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2026 | -3.1% |
| 28 May 2026 | -6.1% |
| 9 Feb 2026 | -10.7% |
| 5 Nov 2025 | +6.8% |
| 6 Aug 2025 | -4.3% |
| 29 May 2025 | +12.1% |
| 21 Apr 2025 | +12.1% |
| 17 Jan 2025 | +2.2% |
Universal at a glance
Universal Corporation is a global agricultural enterprise specializing in the processing and supply of leaf tobacco and a diverse range of plant-based ingredients.
- Market value
- $1.1B
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Tobacco
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $2.8B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -6.8%
- Analysts with estimates
- 1
- Beta to the US market
- -0.31
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices Universal on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 19 Sep 2026 the model's fair value for UVV was $42.40. As of 27 Sep 2026 it is $41.10, a change of -3.1%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about Universal's valuation
Is Universal stock undervalued or overvalued?
On Faircurve's model, UVV reads as Fairly valued as of 27 Sep 2026. The model's fair value is $41.10 a share against a last close of $42.20, a gap of -2.6%.
What is UVV's fair value?
$41.10 a share as of 27 Sep 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $25.34 to $60.17.
What price range does the model give UVV?
$34.48 to $50.11 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 4,327 past valuations, refreshed 26 Sep 2026.
When does Universal report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 4 Nov 2026. Companies can move their dates.
How much has UVV moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.4%, ignoring direction. The largest was +12.1% around the report of 29 May 2025.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for UVV is medium. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.