NYSE: MP · Industrial Materials
MP Materials (MP) fair value and price range
As of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model values MP Materials (MP) at $36.57 a share. The stock last closed at $33.74, which puts the model's fair value 8.4% above the price. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
Revalued . Price is the close of 5 Nov 2026. MP Materials Corp.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 31 Oct 2026 moved the fair value from $35.74 to $36.57 (+2.3%). The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move.
What the model makes of itThe price of $33.74 is 8.4% below it. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What's nextNo report date on file. Options prices imply a move of about 23% either way over the next month. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give MP?
The calibrated range for MP over 63 trading days is $26.64 to $45.10. It sits around the last close, and its width comes from the volatility that MP's own options imply (79% a year), calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The fair value is the model's opinion and rides beside the range. It is not the centre of it.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $21.44 to $59.50. In 45% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
Faircurve Insights · 31 Oct 2026
MP Materials Corp. manages and operates facilities dedicated to the extraction and refinement of rare earth elements. Its primary asset is the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine, a key operation situated within the Western Hemisphere.
On the run of 31 Oct 2026, Faircurve's model put the fair value at $36.57 a share, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The previous run, on 24 Oct 2026, gave $35.74, so the fair value moved +2.3%. In the model's own words: "The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move." The calibrated range over 63 trading days is $26.64 to $45.10. It is built around the price from the volatility the stock's own options imply, and calibrated weekly against realised prices across 6,661 past valuations. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown.
The model's overall quality score for the company is 33 out of 100, a composite of six quality factors scored against comparable companies. Growth quality is the highest factor at 71, with trailing revenue growth at 10.1%. Capital discipline scores 44, with net buybacks to market value at 0.7% against a peer median of 0.1%. Profitability scores 25, with ROIC at -2.7% against a peer median of -4.3%. The model compares the company with Materion Corporation (MTRN), Commercial Metals Company (CMC), Armstrong World Industries, Inc. (AWI), NewMarket Corporation (NEU), Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) and Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. (SSD).
Written from the figures on this page for the 31 Oct 2026 valuation and checked by rule before publishing: every number is one printed here, no forecast, no instruction. The price, the gap and the verdict are the page's own and change daily. Not a recommendation.
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Faircurve's note after each US session, in your inbox. No account needed.
When does MP report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
Options prices on 5 Nov 2026 imply a move of about 12.4% in either direction through the nearest expiry, about 7 days out. That is the size the market is pricing, not a direction. MP's 30 day implied volatility works out to about 22.9% over one month.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across MP's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 6.7%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in MP
How does MP score on business quality?
MP Materials's overall quality score is 33 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 25 | -2.7%ROIC | -4.3% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 36 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 71 | 10.1%Revenue growth, trailing | |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 44 | 0.7%Net buybacks / market value | 0.1% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 1 | 8.18xNet debt / EBITDA | |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 0 | 19.9 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y |
How does MP compare with similar companies?
The companies in industrial materials closest to MP Materials in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTRN Materion Corporation | $177.47 | $223.32 | +25.8% | Undervalued |
| CMC Commercial Metals Company | $62.22 | $70.05 | +12.6% | Fairly valued |
| BLDR Builders FirstSource, Inc. | $65.50 | $59.18 | -9.6% | Low evidence grade |
| AWI Armstrong World Industries, Inc. | $170.54 | $173.66 | +1.8% | Fairly valued |
| NEU NewMarket Corporation | $693.08 | $747.49 | +7.9% | Fairly valued |
| EMN Eastman Chemical Company | $65.71 | $90.30 | +37.4% | Undervalued |
| CTVA Corteva, Inc. | $12.04 | $11.65 | -3.2% | Data under review |
| SSD Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | $198.84 | $189.82 | -4.5% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for MP, the peer-implied price, is $15.91 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
MP Materials at a glance
MP Materials Corp. manages and operates facilities dedicated to the extraction and refinement of rare earth elements. The company's primary asset is the Mountain Pass Rare Earth mine, a key operation situated within the Western Hemisphere.
- Market value
- $7.0B
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Industrial Materials
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $718M
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- +100.3%
- Analysts with estimates
- 10
- Beta to the US market
- 2.61
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices MP Materials on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for MP was $35.74. As of 31 Oct 2026 it is $36.57, a change of +2.3%. The stock's own trading multiple rose with its price, and the fair value follows it in part: most of the move. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about MP Materials's valuation
Is MP Materials stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts MP's fair value at $36.57 a share against a last close of $33.74, as of 31 Oct 2026. The model grades the evidence behind this valuation as low, so no verdict is shown. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It does not say how likely the fair value is to be right.
What is MP's fair value?
$36.57 a share as of 31 Oct 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $21.44 to $59.50.
What price range does the model give MP?
$26.64 to $45.10 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 6,661 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
How much has MP moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 6.7%, ignoring direction. The largest was -17.4% around the report of 1 Aug 2024.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for MP is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on MP
The model holds no idea open on MP today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on MP with their outcomes. A free account is enough.