O-I Glass, Inc. (OI) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $10.47 · Current price: $8.95 · Verdict: Undervalued

The Verdict on OI

O I GLASS INC (OI) is currently deemed Fairly Valued by our Monte Carlo simulations, despite offering a notable upside to its median fair value. With a current price of $8.95, our analysis indicates a median fair value (P50) of $10.47, representing a +17.0% potential appreciation. This assessment reflects the probabilistic nature of future scenarios considered, positioning OI as adequately priced within its current operational and financial context. The simulations suggest that while upside exists, the overall risk-reward profile, as quantified by the full fair value distribution, aligns with a fairly valued rating rather than being significantly undervalued.

How OI stacks up against peers

OI's operational and financial health registers as average when benchmarked against its sector peers. This average quality tier is a critical input into our Monte Carlo simulations, influencing the range and probability density of potential future valuations. A company with average fundamental health, like OI at its $8.95 current price, typically exhibits a more balanced distribution of upside and downside scenarios compared to those with superior or weaker quality profiles. This characteristic is directly embedded into the fair value model, ensuring that the $10.47 P50 fairly reflects the company's relative standing and inherent risks within its industry.

What this means for investors

For investors considering O I GLASS INC (OI), the Fairly Valued verdict implies a balanced risk-reward proposition at the current $8.95 price. While the median fair value of $10.47 suggests a +17.0% upside potential, this must be considered within the broader context of its average quality tier and the full range of Monte Carlo simulated outcomes. FairCurve's assessment integrates thousands of forward scenarios, providing a comprehensive view beyond a single price target. To truly understand the full bear and bull case distributions and track OI's fair value as new fundamentals are released, sign up for a free FairCurve account.