O-I Glass, Inc. (OI) — Fair Value Analysis

Base-case fair value (P50): $12.99 · Current price: $9.61 · Verdict: Undervalued

The Verdict on OI

Based on our Monte Carlo simulations, OI GLASS INC (OI) is currently Fairly Valued. The stock trades at $9.61, while our median fair value (P50) stands at $12.99. This implies a potential +35.2% upside from its current trading level, suggesting that while there is room for appreciation, the market price largely aligns with its intrinsic value as modeled across thousands of forward-looking scenarios. The quality tier for OI's operational and financial health is assessed as average when compared against its sector peers.

How OI stacks up against peers

Our analysis indicates that OI's average quality tier reflects a balanced operational and financial standing relative to its industry. The Monte Carlo simulations for OI project a $12.99 median fair value, which, when compared to the $9.61 current market price, indicates that the company is not significantly overvalued or undervalued by current market participants. Despite the +35.2% potential, this alignment in valuation suggests that OI's current price appropriately accounts for its fundamental health and future prospects within the sector, according to our probabilistic modeling.

What this means for investors

Investors considering OI should note the Fairly Valued verdict, derived from a robust Monte Carlo simulation indicating a median fair value of $12.99 against the current $9.61. While the +35.2% suggests some potential, it falls within a range consistent with a fair valuation. The average quality tier also signals that the company’s fundamentals are neither a strong tailwind nor a significant headwind at this juncture, making its valuation sensitive to evolving market dynamics and company performance. To understand the full range of potential outcomes, including specific bear-case and bull-case scenarios, sign up for a free FairCurve account.