NYSE: OI ยท Packaging & Containers
O-I Glass (OI) fair value and price range
As of 2 Nov 2026, Faircurve's model values O-I Glass (OI) at $9.85 a share. The stock last closed at $5.12, which puts the model's fair value 92.4% above the price. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
Revalued . Price is the close of 3 Nov 2026. O-I Glass, Inc.
The report adds the live price, the chart against the range the options market prices, the next earnings date and the analysts' consensus. No account needed.
This week, in three parts
What happenedThe run of 2 Nov 2026 moved the fair value from $13.85 to $9.85 (-28.9%).
What the model makes of itThe price of $5.12 is 92.4% below it. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What's nextNext report on 9 Feb 2027. The next weekly run is on Saturday 7 Nov 2026.
What price range does the model give OI?
The calibrated range for OI over 63 trading days is $7.98 to $11.77. There is no live options data for this stock, so the range is built from the fair value and calibrated weekly against realised prices (n = 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026). Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time at this horizon.
The price is below this range. For names with fair value 30%+ above price, the calibrated range has held the price 23% of the time over 63 trading days, and 76% ended below it; the typical move was +0.7%.
The model's own simulated range, from the 20th to the 80th percentile of its runs, is $0.26 to $22.11. In 64% of the simulations the fair value came out above the price the model ran on.
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When does OI report earnings, and how has the stock reacted?
O-I Glass's next earnings report is scheduled for 9 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
Around its last 8 reports: what the options market priced, and what followed
Each move runs from the last close before the report to the first close after it, so it covers companies that report before the open and after the close. The median size across OI's last 8 reports, ignoring direction, was 12.3%.
What the options market has priced for a month's move in OI
How does OI score on business quality?
O-I Glass's overall quality score is 59 out of 100. Each factor below is a score against comparable companies, not a percentile of the metric beside it.
| Factor | Score (0 to 100) | Headline measure | Peer median |
|---|---|---|---|
| ProfitabilityReturn on invested capital against the peer group, with a bonus for an improving trend. | 86 | 8.4%ROIC | 7.4% |
| Earnings qualityHow much of reported profit is cash: free cash flow to net income, and the accrual ratio (the share of earnings that is not cash). | 100 | ||
| Growth qualityTrailing revenue growth, forward growth from consensus, and the direction of analysts' rating changes. | 25 | -1.6%Revenue growth, trailing | -1.3% |
| Capital disciplineReinvestment efficiency (capital spending per unit of revenue) and net buybacks. | 36 | 1.3%Net buybacks / market value | 0.2% |
| Balance sheetNet debt to EBITDA and interest coverage. | 3 | 6.31xNet debt / EBITDA | 4.76x |
| StabilityDownside volatility of the EBITDA margin over the last five years. | 43 | 1.8 ptsEBITDA margin downside volatility, 5y | 1.7 pts |
How does OI compare with similar companies?
The companies in packaging & containers closest to O-I Glass in market value, each on the same model and the same date.
| Company | Last close | Model fair value | Gap | Model verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK Graphic Packaging Holding Company | $11.31 | $11.08 | -2.0% | Low evidence grade |
| GEF Greif, Inc. | $81.25 | $76.59 | -5.7% | Fairly valued |
| SLGN Silgan Holdings Inc. | $41.51 | $40.64 | -2.1% | Fairly valued |
| SON Sonoco Products Company | $48.83 | $59.09 | +21.0% | Low evidence grade |
| CCK Crown Holdings, Inc. | $120.73 | $141.33 | +17.1% | Undervalued |
| AVY Avery Dennison Corporation | $185.38 | $183.97 | -0.8% | Fairly valued |
| BALL Ball Corporation | $63.21 | $62.92 | -0.5% | Fairly valued |
| AMCR Amcor plc | $46.96 | $43.40 | -7.6% | Fairly valued |
What the comparable companies' multiples alone would give for OI, the peer-implied price, is $24.93 a share on this run. The fair value weighs that against the company's own multiple.
All packaging & containers stocks ranked by gap to fair value
O-I Glass at a glance
O-I Glass, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, is dedicated to the manufacturing and global distribution of glass packaging.
- Market value
- $787M
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Packaging & Containers
- Revenue expected, next twelve months
- $6.3B
- Consensus revenue growth, next fiscal year
- -1.9%
- Analysts with estimates
- 4
- Beta to the US market
- 0.77
- First valued by Faircurve
- 11 Jul 2026
How the fair value is worked out: the model prices O-I Glass on the value of the whole business, debt included, against the operating profit analysts expect next year (forward EV/EBITDA), runs 2,000 simulations across its inputs and takes the midpoint. The full method is documented here.
What changed in the latest valuation?
On 24 Oct 2026 the model's fair value for OI was $13.85. As of 2 Nov 2026 it is $9.85, a change of -28.9%. The model revalues every stock it covers each week, and again after an earnings report.
Questions about O-I Glass's valuation
Is O-I Glass stock undervalued or overvalued?
Faircurve's model puts OI's fair value at $9.85 a share against a last close of $5.12, as of 2 Nov 2026. The fair value sits more than 60% away from the price. Faircurve gives no verdict on a gap wider than 60%.
What is OI's fair value?
$9.85 a share as of 2 Nov 2026, the midpoint of 2,000 simulations. The model's own 20th to 80th percentile range is $0.26 to $22.11.
What price range does the model give OI?
$7.98 to $11.77 over 63 trading days. Ranges built this way held the price 60% of the time across 10,454 past valuations, refreshed 31 Oct 2026.
When does O-I Glass report earnings next?
The next report is scheduled for 9 Feb 2027. Companies can move their dates.
How much has OI moved on past earnings reports?
Across its last 8 reports the median two session move was 12.3%, ignoring direction. The largest was -18.4% around the report of 28 Apr 2026.
How confident is the model in this valuation?
The model's evidence grade for OI is low. The grade looks at how complete the inputs are, how many comparable companies there are and how closely they agree, and how wide the range of outcomes is. It is not a probability that the fair value is right, or that the price reaches it.
The model's own ideas on OI
The model holds no idea open on OI today. Signed-in readers see the rule each idea runs on, the floor and the exit level the model set and its time limit, and the model's closed ideas on OI with their outcomes. A free account is enough.